TrueCar Forecasts Fourth Consecutive Month of Slowing Vehicle Sales for August 2021
SANTA MONICA, Calif., Aug. 27: TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,212,399 units in August 2021, down 4% from a year ago but up 1% vs. July 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 14.4 million, down 4% from August 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,077,701 units, down 7% from a year ago and about even with July 2021.
"The chip shortage continues to be the driving force behind vehicle availability, creating the lowest average incentive spending since 20131," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Continued strong demand is creating an environment where vehicles are selling extremely quickly. About a third of vehicles are selling within a week of arriving on the dealer lot, compared to just 18% last year," added Woolard.
"Though new vehicle sales continue to decline in August, some brands saw a year-over-year increase in sales. Toyota is operating extremely well considering their inventory days' supply is roughly half the industry average. We will continue to see how they perform once their announced plant closures put additional pressure on production and inventory," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.
Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):
Total sales for August 2021 are expected to be down 4% from a year ago and up 1% from July 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Fleet sales for August 2021 are expected to be up 30% from a year ago and up 9% from July 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
Incentive spend is down 39% from last year.
Average transaction price is projected to be up 6% from a year ago and up .5% from July 2021.
Total SAAR is expected to be down 4% from a year ago at 14.4 million units.
Used vehicle sales for August 2021 are expected to reach 3.7 million, up 6% from a year ago and about even with July 2021.
The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.4%.
The average loan term on a new vehicle for August 2021 is 70 months and likewise the average loan term on a used vehicle is also 70 months.
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer
Aug 2021 Forecast
Aug 2020 Actual
Jul 2021 Actual
YoY % Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
29,416
25,235
28,845
16.6%
21.2%
2.0%
10.1%
Daimler
22,840
23,966
24,977
-4.7%
-0.9%
-8.6%
-1.2%
Ford
122,166
184,781
118,917
-33.9%
-31.2%
2.7%
11.0%
GM
183,530
218,845
197,697
-16.1%
-12.8%
-7.2%
0.3%
Honda
133,666
135,925
135,542
-1.7%
2.3%
-1.4%
6.5%
Hyundai
69,550
59,721
73,680
16.5%
21.1%
-5.6%
1.9%
Kia
64,172
57,015
70,099
12.6%
17.1%
-8.5%
-1.1%
Nissan
64,205
73,833
80,456
-13.0%
-9.6%
-20.2%
-13.8%
Stellantis
142,791
171,519
142,065
-16.7%
-13.4%
0.5%
8.6%
Subaru
43,065
57,885
50,125
-25.6%
-22.6%
-14.1%
-7.2%
Tesla
26,425
19,000
26,200
39.1%
44.6%
0.9%
8.9%
Toyota
200,202
190,532
225,917
5.1%
9.3%
-11.4%
-4.3%
Volkswagen Group
53,295
50,275
55,754
6.0%
10.2%
-4.4%
3.2%
Industry
1,212,399
1,319,682
1,291,775
-8.1%
-4.5%
-6.1%
1.4%
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer
Aug 2021 Forecast
Aug 2020 Actual
Jul 2021 Actual
YoY % Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
28,851
24,827
28,359
16.2%
20.9%
1.7%
9.9%
Daimler
21,794
23,120
24,466
-5.7%
-2.0%
-10.9%
-3.8%
Ford
90,121
147,570
96,446
-38.9%
-36.5%
-6.6%
0.9%
GM
155,217
196,696
172,037
-21.1%
-17.9%
-9.8%
-2.6%
Honda
132,042
135,147
134,974
-2.3%
1.6%
-2.2%
5.7%
Hyundai
61,961
57,839
66,053
7.1%
11.4%
-6.2%
1.3%
Kia
58,942
53,802
67,491
9.6%
13.9%
-12.7%
-5.7%
Nissan
58,190
68,339
66,456
-14.9%
-11.4%
-12.4%
-5.4%
Stellantis
118,682
147,408
119,919
-19.5%
-16.3%
-1.0%
6.9%
Subaru
42,220
56,999
48,256
-25.9%
-23.0%
-12.5%
-5.5%
Tesla
26,260
19,000
26,191
38.2%
43.7%
0.3%
8.3%
Toyota
180,822
184,624
199,937
-2.1%
1.9%
-9.6%
-2.3%
Volkswagen Group
52,507
49,823
54,953
5.4%
9.6%
-4.5%
3.2%
Industry
1,077,701
1,211,579
1,158,127
-11.0%
-7.5%
-6.9%
0.5%
Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer
Aug 2021 Forecast
Aug 2020 Actual
Jul 2021 Actual
YoY % Change
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
565
408
486
38.5%
44.0%
16.1%
25.4%
Daimler
1,046
846
511
23.7%
28.6%
104.7%
121.1%
Ford
32,045
37,211
22,471
-13.9%
-10.4%
42.6%
54.0%
GM
28,313
22,149
25,660
27.8%
32.9%
10.3%
19.2%
Honda
1,625
778
568
108.9%
117.2%
186.1%
209.0%
Hyundai
7,589
1,882
7,627
303.3%
319.4%
-0.5%
7.5%
Kia
5,230
3,213
2,608
62.8%
69.3%
100.5%
116.6%
Nissan
6,015
5,494
14,000
9.5%
13.9%
-57.0%
-53.6%
Stellantis
24,109
24,111
22,146
0.0%
4.0%
8.9%
17.6%
Subaru
845
886
1,869
-4.6%
-0.8%
-54.8%
-51.2%
Tesla
165
-
9
1747.2%
1895.0%
Toyota
19,380
5,908
25,980
228.0%
241.2%
-25.4%
-19.4%
Volkswagen Group
789
452
801
74.4%
81.4%
-1.5%
6.4%
Industry
134,698
108,103
133,648
24.6%
29.6%
0.8%
8.8%
Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer
Aug 2021 Forecast
Aug 2020 Actual
Jul 2021 Actual
YoY % Change
MoM % Change
BMW
1.9%
1.6%
1.7%
18.8%
13.9%
Daimler
4.6%
3.5%
2.0%
29.8%
123.9%
Ford
26.2%
20.1%
18.9%
30.3%
38.8%
GM
15.4%
10.1%
13.0%
52.4%
18.9%
Honda
1.2%
0.6%
0.4%
112.4%
190.1%
Hyundai
10.9%
3.2%
10.4%
246.3%
5.4%
Kia
8.1%
5.6%
3.7%
44.6%
119.1%
Nissan
9.4%
7.4%
17.4%
25.9%
-46.2%
Stellantis
16.9%
14.1%
15.6%
20.1%
8.3%
Subaru
2.0%
1.5%
3.7%
28.3%
-47.4%
Tesla
0.6%
0.0%
0.0%
1731.4%
Toyota
9.7%
3.1%
11.5%
212.2%
-15.8%
Volkswagen Group
1.5%
0.9%
1.4%
64.6%
3.0%
Industry
11.1%
8.2%
10.3%
35.6%
7.4%
Total Market Share
Manufacturer
Aug 2021 Forecast
Aug 2020 Actual
Jul 2021 Actual
BMW
2.4%
1.9%
2.2%
Daimler
1.9%
1.8%
1.9%
Ford
10.1%
14.0%
9.2%
GM
15.1%
16.6%
15.3%
Honda
11.0%
10.3%
10.5%
Hyundai
5.7%
4.5%
5.7%
Kia
5.3%
4.3%
5.4%
Nissan
5.3%
5.6%
6.2%
Stellantis
11.8%
13.0%
11.0%
Subaru
3.6%
4.4%
3.9%
Tesla
2.2%
1.4%
2.0%
Toyota
16.5%
14.4%
17.5%
Volkswagen Group
4.4%
3.8%
4.3%
95.3%
96.1%
95.2%
Retail Market Share
Manufacturer
Aug 2021 Forecast
Aug 2020 Actual
Jul 2021 Actual
BMW
2.7%
2.0%
2.4%
Daimler
2.0%
1.9%
2.1%
Ford
8.4%
12.2%
8.3%
GM
14.4%
16.2%
14.9%
Honda
12.3%
11.2%
11.7%
Hyundai
5.7%
4.8%
5.7%
Kia
5.5%
4.4%
5.8%
Nissan
5.4%
5.6%
5.7%
Stellantis
11.0%
12.2%
10.4%
Subaru
3.9%
4.7%
4.2%
Tesla
2.4%
1.6%
2.3%
Toyota
16.8%
15.2%
17.3%
Volkswagen Group
4.9%
4.1%
4.7%
95.4%
96.2%
95.5%
ATP
Manufacturer
Aug 2021 Forecast
Aug 2020 Actual
Jul 2021 Actual
YOY
MOM
BMW
$57,757
$57,122
$56,408
1.1%
2.4%
Daimler
$67,341
$59,487
$60,768
13.2%
10.8%
Ford
$47,641
$42,342
$46,896
12.5%
1.6%
GM
$44,962
$41,745
$44,846
7.7%
0.3%
Honda
$31,557
$30,112
$31,048
4.8%
1.6%
Hyundai
$31,842
$29,082
$31,114
9.5%
2.3%
Kia
$27,674
$26,158
$27,803
5.8%
-0.5%
Nissan
$31,393
$28,419
$31,574
10.5%
-0.6%
Stellantis
$47,719
$42,440
$47,623
12.4%
0.2%
Subaru
$31,312
$30,087
$30,983
4.1%
1.1%
Toyota
$35,035
$34,087
$35,102
2.8%
-0.2%
Volkswagen Group
$42,197
$40,947
$42,273
3.1%
-0.2%
Industry
$38,520
$36,373
$38,332
5.9%
0.5%
$2,148
$188
Incentives
Manufacturer
Aug 2021 Forecast
Aug 2020 Actual
Jul 2021 Actual
YOY
MOM
BMW
$4,029
$5,486
$4,427
-26.6%
-9.0%
Daimler
$3,929
$5,560
$3,280
-29.3%
19.8%
Ford
$2,234
$4,023
$2,461
-44.5%
-9.2%
GM
$3,384
$5,570
$3,991
-39.2%
-15.2%
Honda
$1,945
$2,644
$2,112
-26.4%
-7.9%
Hyundai
$1,503
$2,444
$1,895
-38.5%
-20.7%
Kia
$2,034
$3,711
$2,603
-45.2%
-21.9%
Nissan
$2,283
$4,520
$3,005
-49.5%
-24.0%
Stellantis
$2,981
$4,812
$2,720
-38.1%
9.6%
Subaru
$1,192
$1,855
$1,395
-35.7%
-14.5%
Toyota
$1,825
$2,745
$1,957
-33.5%
-6.8%
Volkswagen Group
$2,799
$4,478
$3,362
-37.5%
-16.8%
Industry
$2,432
$3,969
$2,688
-38.7%
-9.5%
-$1,537
-$256
Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer
Aug 2021 Forecast
Aug 2020 Actual
Jul 2021 Actual
YOY
MOM
BMW
7.0%
9.6%
7.8%
-27.4%
-11.1%
Daimler
5.8%
9.3%
5.4%
-37.6%
8.1%
Ford
4.7%
9.5%
5.2%
-50.7%
-10.7%
GM
7.5%
13.3%
8.9%
-43.6%
-15.4%
Honda
6.2%
8.8%
6.8%
-29.8%
-9.4%
Hyundai
4.7%
8.4%
6.1%
-43.8%
-22.5%
Kia
7.4%
14.2%
9.4%
-48.2%
-21.5%
Nissan
7.3%
15.9%
9.5%
-54.3%
-23.6%
Stellantis
6.2%
11.3%
5.7%
-44.9%
9.4%
Subaru
3.8%
6.2%
4.5%
-38.3%
-15.4%
Toyota
5.2%
8.1%
5.6%
-35.3%
-6.6%
Volkswagen Group
6.6%
10.9%
8.0%
-39.4%
-16.6%
Industry
6.3%
10.9%
7.0%
-42.1%
-10.0%
Revenue
Manufacturer
Aug 2021 Forecast
Aug 2020 Actual
Jul 2021 Actual
YOY
MOM
Industry
$46,702,106,518
$48,000,364,966
$49,516,875,483
-2.7%
-5.7%
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com
1 according to Motor Intelligence
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